Background Resources on Election in Nigeria

Selected Recent Commentaries by Nigerians and Other Informed Observers

Nigeria is approximately 924,000 square km (357,000 sq miles) while the USA is approximately 9,834,000 sq km (3,797,000 sq miles). The area of the USA is more than 10 times that of Nigeria.

Nigeria's estimated population of 213.4 million people, however, is almost 2/3 of the 337 million in the USA. Nigeria's average population density of 231/km² is almost 7 times greater than that of the USA.

Nigeria's population, moreover, is growing rapidly, at the rate of 2.4% a year. The population of the United States is growing at less than 0.5% a year.  

Different regions and states within both Nigeria and the USA have very different histories and political realities. This means that anyone who tries to make generalizations about either country (whether politician, journalist, or scholar) will inevitably oversimplify the complex realities. 

I do have some minimal outdated knowledge of Nigeria from my Junior Year Abroad at the University of Ibadan in the school year of 1961-1962. I studied African history there with Dr. Jacob Ajayi. I traveled from Ibadan to Calabar during one break between terms with a classmate from the Niger Delta, and to northern Nigeria as far as Kano and back during the other break with Murray Last, at that time a graduate student at Ibadan from the United Kingdom who was beginning his life-long study of Islam in northern Nigeria.

But I have never visited Nigeria since leaving to return home in May 1962 (unless you count a few hours changing flights in Kano while traveling or to or from Southern Africa). Those familiar with the history of this time period in Nigeria will know that this was when the state of emergency was declared in the then Western Region. I don’t remember any significant details, even of just how I traveled from Ibadan to Lagos for the international flight. But I do remember that I was all packed up when I heard the news.

So I claim no expertise at all or any capacity to analyze or explain the context of the election taking place today. Instead I am sharing links to articles to resources most of which I have only sampled quickly. My choice is based on what I know about the authors or the publications responsible.

Updates, Debates & Commentary on the 2023 Elections. By the editors of The Republic, Feb-Mar issue 2023. https://republic.com.ng/nigeria-decides-2023/

Other selected commentaries published before the election

“2023’s Most Important Election Isn’t Where You Think: Why the world’s eyes will be—or should be—on Nigeria in the coming weeks.”" By Howard W. French, Jan 6, 2023. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/06/nigeria-election-2023-obi-tinubu-abubakar/

“The Two Voting Blocs That Could Transform Nigerian Politics.” By Matthew T. Page and  Feyi Fawehinmi, Feb 14, 2023. https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/14/two-voting-blocs-that-could-transform-nigerian-politics-pub-89030

“Buhari’s Unforced Error.” By Ebenezer Obadare, Feb 17, 2023. https://www.cfr.org/blog/buharis-unforced-error

The Continent | issue 117, Feb 18, 2023 Special Edition: Nearly 100-million voters, 18 candidates and a broken economy. With control over Africa’s biggest economy at stake, Nigerians head to the polls with what seems like three genuine contenders to pick from. Add in a dark horse and nobody knows what’s going to happen. Voters just know that things have to get better, with record unemployment, chronic insecurity and hope in short supply. Here’s your guide to what’s coming next weekend.

“Where do Nigeria’s frontrunners stand on climate change?” By Oluwaseun Oguntuase Feb 20, 2023. https://africanarguments.org/2023/02/where-do-nigeria-presidential-frontrunners-stand-on-climate-change/

Semafor Africa with Alexis Akwagyiram and Yinka Adegoke. Feb 20, 2023. https://www.semafor.com/newsletter/02/20/2023/nigeria-election-2023

“What’s at Stake in Nigeria’s General Elections?” By Ebenezer Obadare, Feb 22, 2023. https://www.cfr.org/article/whats-stake-nigerias-general-elections

“Godfathers: An Introduction, Editor’s Foreword.” By Wale Lawal, Feb 22, 2023. In February/March issue of the Lagos-based magazine The Republic. https://republic.com.ng/nigeria/godfathers-an-introduction/

“An overview of Nigeria's 2023 elections: What you need to know for this weekend’s polls.” By Jeffrey Paller, Feb 23, 2023.

This Week in Africa

“The Continental Implications of Nigeria’s Election.” By Michelle Gavin, Feb 23, 2023. https://www.cfr.org/blog/continental-implications-nigerias-elections

“Will technology deliver a clean election for Nigeria?” By Dengiyefa Angalapu, Feb 24, 2023. https://africanarguments.org/2023/02/will-technology-deliver-a-clean-election-for-nigeria/

Adding new ones that I missed in original post on Feb 25

“What’s at stake in Nigeria’s high-risk elections” By Obi Anyadike, Feb 23, 2023. https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/editors-take/2023/02/23/whats-stake-nigerias-high-risk-elections

Update March 16, 2023 - Articles Recommended by AfricaFocus Editor

Adéwálé Májà-Pearce, Whose Turn?, March 1, 2023

Ebenezer Obadare, A Chance to Consolidate, March 1, 2023

Semafor Africa, Who is Tinubu?, March 2, 2023

Chris Olaoluwa Ògúnmọ́dẹdé, Nigeria Did Not Get the Presidential Election It Was Promised,  March 3, 2023

Matthew Page, Nigeria’s election highlights Anglo-American missteps, March 3, 2023

Robbie Gramer, U.S. Hailed Nigeria Election Results While Election Observers Cried Foul, March 6, 2023

Ebenezer Obadare, The Lagos-New York-London echo chamber, March 11, 2023

Adekeye Adebajo, Reflections on the Nigerian Election, March 13, 2023

Daniel Volman, Nigeria: Biden Faces Nigeria Crisis, March 15, 2023

Bill (William) Minter, Editor, AfricaFocus Notes